Trump + Kasich = Trump vs. Hilary

In my lifetime I’ve done a lot of wrong things. Sometimes in willful defiance of what I knew was right. Other times I’ve done the wrong thing while sincerely believing that I was doing what was right…only to find out later that my choice was based on incorrect assumptions, a lack of knowledge, or faulty information. I am glad that God judges the heart—the honest intentions—and not the correctness of the action.

Still, acting in ignorance can cause a lot of damage, both to myself and to others around me who are affected by my action.

I suspect that there are a lot of people who have acted in ignorance during this primary season. For instance, many people cast their votes early (mail, absentee, etc.) for someone who, by the time of their actual primary, had dropped out of the race. In such cases, your vote became a mere statistic, serving only to demonstrate how that ultimate privilege in a democracy—your right to vote—can be rendered absolutely meaningless.

No condemnation from me for having done the wrong thing up to today, voting your conscience, etc., with good intentions. But going forward…the primaries yet to take place…let’s not act in ignorance! There is too much at stake.

I think there are a lot of people casting votes for Donald Trump who are doing so based on faulty information. Trump is carefully selling his personality …“we’re gonna make it all great”…and you are buying it. Donald has one principle which guides his life, and it isn’t about helping the country.  You have bought into the idea that he will fix the problem represented by sold-out-to-the-highest-bidder politicians…as though Trump is not literally the personification and root of that problem. You keep ignoring the fact that all head-to-head matchups for the general election show that Trump would lose to either Clinton or Sanders, meaning your man will never even have the opportunity to do all the things he promises!

Other voters have principles that won’t allow you to vote for a sleazy, adulterous man like Trump. So you thoughtfully considered what candidate is a man who shares your principles: Christian care for the less fortunate, protector of religious liberty, avid devotee to the constitution. Unfortunately, in a way, there have been several candidates who could arguably qualify for the best version of that.

Unfortunately, because it made it difficult to choose among them: Carson, Rubio, Kasich, Cruz, and Bush could all make their case…so “our” votes, the votes of Christian conservatives who should easily be able to select the Republican candidate, got split among those worthy candidates. As of two weeks ago, we still could have.

At this point, however, there are only two candidates who have a chance to get the nomination. Trump and Cruz. There is no possibility of any other candidate getting the 1237 delegates, or going into the convention with close to that many and being able to argue forcefully that they are “most chosen” by the voters. Cruz is a true crusader against the status quo and the Establishment; he's been in there proving it.

Kasich recently falsely asserted that Cruz would have to get something like 80% of the vote in order to get the nomination; truth is, Cruz only needs just over 50% in the right places, and polls show he would get that if Kasich would bow out.

Our nation is on the line. Instead of acting in ignorance, the intelligent person takes counsel from those who are experts on the matter. There is no more thoughtful, conscientious analyst than Michael Barone. Please listen to him, as he explains:

A Vote for Kasich Is a Vote for Trump

By Michael Barone

Perhaps the most important results of the March 22 Republican primary in Arizona and caucus in Utah were numbers that didn’t appear on your television screen, no matter how late you stayed up for the poll closing times. Those were the numbers of votes cast for Marco Rubio in Arizona — 70,587 of them at this writing.

That was 17,595 more than the 52,992 votes cast there for John Kasich, even though Kasich was an active candidate on March 22 and Rubio had “suspended” his campaign after his defeat in Florida seven days before.

One lesson from this is that it is wacky for Arizona and many other states to allow so much early voting in presidential primaries. The field of candidates can change rapidly, and many voters will be recorded for a candidate they wouldn’t have voted for on election day.

The other lesson is relevant to those planning to vote in the 18 Republican primaries and one caucus between now and June 7. And that is that a vote for John Kasich is a vote for Donald Trump.

It’s true that if all the Rubio and Kasich voters in Arizona had opted for their second choice, Donald Trump would probably still have come out ahead, since he got 47 percent in his own right and thus would still have won Arizona’s 58 winner-take-all delegates.

And it’s true that Kasich’s 17 percent in the Utah caucuses did not prevent Ted Cruz from exceeding Utah’s 50 percent threshold (by a lot: 69 percent) and winning that state’s 40 winner-take-all delegates.

But Trump is not polling at anything like the 47 percent level in most states yet to vote. In Wisconsin, which votes April 5, he hasn’t topped 30 percent. Yet with the anti-Trump vote split, he could win the lion’s share of its delegates, awarded statewide and winner-take-all by congressional district.

That’s exactly what happened in Missouri and Illinois on March 15. Trump won 53 of Illinois' 69 delegates with 39 percent, to 30 percent for Cruz, 19 percent for Kasich and 8 percent for Rubio. If Kasich weren’t running or if Rubio had urged his voters to vote Cruz, as he urged them to vote Kasich in the latter’s Ohio, the totals and the delegate count would have looked very different.

Missouri was even closer, with Trump edging Cruz 40.8 to 40.6 percent. Cruz can be faulted for campaigning elsewhere in the last days, and he did end up with 15 delegates by carrying three of eight congressional districts. But Trump won 37 delegates.

The key here is that Trump must win 1,237 delegates — which is a majority at the convention, not some arbitrary number as he has suggested — in order to be nominated. If he falls visibly short of 1,237 it is highly unlikely that he can pick up the delegates necessary to win.

Current delegate counts have Trump at 739, Cruz at 465 and Kasich at 143, with 839 to be selected in states not yet voting. Trump needs about 59 percent of these to win. With divided opposition, he has an excellent chance; many remaining states select delegates winner-take-all statewide or by congressional district. Against Ted Cruz, he has a greater chance of falling short.

Trump has massive unfavorable ratings among general election voters and runs well behind Hillary Clinton in general election polls — his and his supporters' delusional denials notwithstanding. Cruz runs about even against Clinton. He’s not many Republican strategists' idea of an ideal candidate. But he’s in competitive territory against a Democrat with major weaknesses of her own.

Kasich supporters point to general election polls showing him running visibly ahead of Clinton. Similarly, supporters of Bernie Sanders point to polls that show him running better than Clinton against each Republican.

But few analysts of any stripe think Sanders' numbers would stand up under the scrutiny, not given to him so far, inevitably brought to a candidate who could actually be nominated. There’s reason for similar doubts about the durability of Kasich, who has had no significant scrutiny yet.

Kasich has won only one primary, in his home state, and finished second in three more, all in New England. The chances are vanishingly minimal that a convention, once Trump falls short of 1,237, would nominate him for president. But vice president? Maybe — if, despite Kasich’s recent claim that he would never be a running mate, his 143 delegates put Trump over the top. A vote for Kasich is a vote for Trump.

COPYRIGHT 2016 CREATORS.COM

Original published here: http://patriotpost.us/opinion/41538

Kasich's On A Roll...

To all of you--including some of my friends I am afraid--who are voting for Kasich...do you need someone to draw you a picture of what you are doing?

Oh, right. Ramirez did. Here.

Any Questions?

If Cruz Were In A Distant Third...

If Ted Cruz were trailing in distant third or fourth place at this point, especially if he were facing a probable loss in his home state next week, you know what I would do?

• I would do everything possible to get him to drop out of the race and push his voters to the guy in second place, whether that be Rubio or Kasich, whichever one I thought had the best chance to beat Trump.
• I would not vote for Cruz in my upcoming primary, but rather vote for the second place guy...Rubio or Kasich, whichever one I thought had the best chance to beat Trump.  I would urge my friends to do the same. 
• I would blog, right here, pleading for Cruz to drop out and for all of his voters to switch to Rubio or Kasich, whichever one I thought had the best chance to beat Trump.
• I would write to Ted Cruz (not that he would listen to me...but I would be one more voice at least) and plead with him to drop out now!

But that is not the case. Rubio and Kasich are running distant third and fourth place in delegate count and polling for the rest of the primary. If you support either of them, I respectfully ask you to do what I would do if "my" preferred candidate were in the position yours is.

No secret here...I have been blogging in support of Cruz and as it has developed I gratefully believe he has a real chance to win the nomination. In November, he will mop up on Hillary.

But first we must get Cruz nominated! Trump is the greatest threat we now face.

If you are a Rubio or Kasich supporter, I beg you: it's now or never! It is time to consolidate the more conservative vote around one candidate. Rubio and Kasich gave it a good shot. They improved the debates. They helped get the worst Establishment RINOs out of the race. If one of them had the momentum, I would be voting for him Tuesday.

The time has arrived! The differences between Cruz, Rubio and Kasich are minor in the big picture. The big issue is: Trump is the worst thing that can happen to the Republican party this year.

Notice how Trump is bragging about people "coming over" to vote for him. No duh, Sherlock! Lots of Democrats loathe the choices they have been given...so they are crossing over to give themselves another liberal option for November! If he wins the nomination, that just means the Democrats get another primary in November, to choose between Donald Trump (D-masquerading as R) or the liberal that the Democrats finally end up officially nominating.

If Trump gets the GOP nomination, we simply won't have a "Republican" on the ballot in the fall.  This is not akin to McCain or Romney. This is so much worse.

Watch this video...we don't need a "deal-maker" in the White House.
 
At this point in the race, a vote for Kasich or Rubio is really a vote for Trump. Please don't! 

In Donald We Trust(?)

What does it mean to trust someone? Usually we think of it as trusting them to do what is good or right for us. But a friend of mine once said (this was years ago, not someone now the news): "I totally trust Bob...to do what is in Bob's interests!" That was a different take on trust, essentially saying "I have confidence in Bob's consistency, he will remain true to what he values."

In this latter sense, I trust Donald to stand by principles...at least his one principle.  The Donald Principle!

Many people seem to think Donald is going to do the following:

“He’s going to deport all the illegals so we can have our country back.”
“He’s going to clean out all the cronies and hacks in the Washington establishment.”
“He’s going to deal mercilessly with the Muslim threat.”

But is he? Is that even what he says he is going to do? 

Daren Jonescu writes an insightful piece about Trump's supporters' Trust in Trump. He sums it up with this sort of tongue-in-cheek line:

"Give in to the magic, ladies and gentlemen. Trump will do what he says..." 

If you Trust in Trump, you owe it to yourself to read Why I Trust Trump. Then get behind a candidate who actually does represent your values...and it's not Trump.

Donald: the Problem, Not the Solution!

Trump supporters – I understand and share your anger against status quo Republicans. You have a choice in this election who is not one of those. Indeed, you can support a candidate who has made many enemies in Washington because of his willingness to call out the corrupt, status quo, go-along-get-along-with-Obama Republicans, someone brilliant and principled. And that candidate is not Donald Trump!

Please consider just these lines about Trump (and to those of you who support him) in the last debate:

“You’re angry at Washington, and Trump uses angry rhetoric. But for 40 years, he has been part of the corruption in Washington that you’re angry about… You’re not going to stop the corruption and the cronyism by supporting someone who has used government power for private gain… Donald Trump supported Jimmy Carter over Ronald Reagan. Donald supported John Kerry over George W. Bush. Donald Trump funded Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi taking over Congress to pass Obamacare. … [But] let’s talk about this election. The choice Republican primary voters are making is who is best prepared to beat Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump has written checks to Hillary Clinton not once, not twice, not three times. Ten times. Donald Trump in 2008 wrote four checks to elect Hillary Clinton as president.” 

That was Ted Cruz in the March 3 debate. He is the candidate that the establishment least wants to see elected. The establishment wanted Jeb. Now they have turned their support to Rubio, as the next most likely to "get along" with the good ol' boy network in the party. That's a bad sign!

If you are seeing the truth about Trump and are ready to switch, Rubio is not your man. Please don't let your subjective feelings about Cruz ("I just don't like his tone" or "I think he looks scary" or "he comes across as harsh") steer you away from his rock-solid substance. We have to get behind the candidate who

• Washington establishment doesn't want (he has already stood up to them),
• who has bested Trump seven times so far in the primaries (resoundingly so in the March 5 contests) and 
• who is universally recognized by both his friends and his enemies as the consistent, conservative candidate.

Let's get behind Ted Cruz. It's now or never, and the stakes may literally be saving our country!

[For more review of the debate and the truth about Trump, visit the Patriot Post]
[For those of you who read an earlier version of this post, I apologize for implying that Rubio supporters were childish. That was not my intent...rather those who support any candidate other than Cruz on the basis of your feelings...that is childish!]

Illusions of Hope and The Donald Principle

"It is natural to man to indulge in the illusions of hope. We are apt to shut our eyes against a painful truth, and listen to the song of that siren till she transforms us into beasts." —Patrick Henry (1775)

Last week, after his Nevada victory, Trump said two things that should catch the eye of those who think he should become president:

"We won with poorly educated. I love the poorly educated." [then Trump added] "When others drop out, I will pick up more. Sad but true." 

These two statements are perhaps the most truthful words he has spoken in this campaign cycle. Could the following have been a prophecy of this primary:

"Any formal attack on ignorance is bound to fail because the masses are always ready to defend their most precious possession — their ignorance." —Hendrik van Loon (1882-1944)

There are so many reasons not to vote for The Donald. Everything in his life up to this point demonstrates that he has one guiding principle for life, which is,  

Do whatever it takes to get what Donald wants.

This Donald Principle is evident in his whole life. Here is just a quick list of examples:

• hiring illegal immigrant workers (fined about a million dollars when caught) yet making illegal immigration a centerpiece of his campaign
• buying favor with New York politicians (including much financial and sound-bite support for his probable general election opponent)
• filing bankruptcy to protect his poor investments
• creating  a fake "university" to rip off unsuspecting investors
• investing in immoral businesses (strip clubs, etc.)
• committing adultery (with many women, by his own testimony)
• now calling himself a "strong Christian" to patronize that voting block although he says he has not asked God to forgive him
• playing the media like a fiddle (they want him as the Republican nominee, because a. he is the easiest to beat in the general, and b. even if not, he is as liberal as a Democrat anyway!)
• hiding his tax return and his net worth (while simultaneously bragging about it). 

Further application of the Donald Principle is the fact that nearly every political position he has taken in this primary race has been a faux conversion from his very public positions of the past..in order to get the Republican nomination. Political wisdom is to "run right in the primary, then run left in the general."

Among the few political positions he has not even claimed to have changed, even for the sake of the Donald Principle, are some of his famous "New York values": socialized health care (replace with ObamaCare with "something better" but still government-provided), gay agenda and support for abortion-provider Planned Parenthood!

If...God forbid...this man would ever hold the powers of the Presidency, just imagine the damage he can do to our country while applying the Donald Principle. I shudder to think of it!

I encourage you to read more about this man before you doom our country with a vote for him.  Start with this discussion of his tax return, or this on his supposed Christianity, or why President Trump would be worse than Hillary, or how electing him will destroy for decades the opportunity to elect true reformers.

Please, anyone of conscience and conservative principle, don't vote for another narcissist dedicated solely to self-promotion.  A final word from our first President:

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism." —George Washington (1796)

Trump the Magic Dragon

"Leave it to him. Jobs will flow back in a rush from China, from Japan, from Mexico, from everywhere. Universal health care, with Obamacare replaced by “something terrific.” Veterans finally taken care of. Drugs stopped cold at the border. Indeed, an end to drug addiction itself. Victory upon victory of every kind.

"How? That question never comes up anymore. No one expects an answer. His will be done, on earth if not yet in heaven.  ...

"Trump and Sanders are soaring not just by defying the establishment, but by defying logic and history. Sanders' magic potion is socialism; Trump’s is Trump."

As is so often the case, I wish I would have said half as well the things Charles Krauthammer writes and says so effortlessly. Yes, we are mad at the establishment and want a change for the better. But Trump is not the answer. He is as "insider" as insider gets, and his whole history has been to get him what he wants for himself, not for the country or for the good of others...for Trump.
If you are about to cast a vote for Trump, I urge you to read Krauthammer's column which follows...all the way to the last line.
[Oh, breaking news here! If you watched the GOP Debate Saturday night you also got to see what a spoiled brat Trump actually is. Not Presidential. On actual issues, Cruz has the track record, answers and policies.] 
Curt
*****************************

Sanders and Trump: Magic Sells

By Charles Krauthammer · Feb. 13, 2016

The New Hampshire results have solidified the reigning cliche that the 2016 campaign is an anti-establishment revolt of both the left and the right. Largely overlooked, however, is the role played in setting the national mood by the seven-year legacy of the Obama presidency.

Yes, you hear constant denunciations of institutions, parties, leaders, donors, lobbyists, influence peddlers. But the starting point of the bipartisan critique is the social, economic and geopolitical wreckage all around us. Bernie Sanders is careful never to blame Obama directly, but his description of the America Obama leaves behind is devastating — a wasteland of stagnant wages, rising inequality, a sinking middle class, young people crushed by debt, the American Dream dying.

Take away the Brooklyn accent and the Larry David mannerisms and you would have thought you were listening to a Republican candidate. After all, who’s been in charge for the last seven years?

Donald Trump is even more colorful in describing the current “mess” and more direct in attributing it to the country’s leadership — most pungently, its stupidity and incompetence. Both candidates are not just anti-establishment but anti-status quo. The revolt is as much about the Obama legacy as it is about institutions.

Look at New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton had made a strategic decision, as highlighted in the debates, to wrap herself in the mantle of the Obama presidency. Big mistake. She lost New Hampshire by three touchdowns.

Beyond railing against the wreckage, the other commonality between the two big New Hampshire winners is in the nature of the cure they offer. Let the others propose carefully budgeted five-point plans. Sanders and Trump offer magic.

Take Sanders' New Hampshire victory speech. It promised the moon: college education, free; universal health care, free; world peace, also free because we won’t be “the policeman of the world” (mythical Sunni armies will presumably be doing that for us). Plus a guaranteed $15 minimum wage. All to be achieved by taxing the rich. Who can be against a “speculation” tax (whatever that means)?

So with Trump. Leave it to him. Jobs will flow back in a rush from China, from Japan, from Mexico, from everywhere. Universal health care, with Obamacare replaced by “something terrific.” Veterans finally taken care of. Drugs stopped cold at the border. Indeed, an end to drug addiction itself. Victory upon victory of every kind.

How? That question never comes up anymore. No one expects an answer. His will be done, on earth if not yet in heaven. Yes, people love Trump’s contempt for the “establishment” — which as far as I can tell means anything not Trump — but what is truly thrilling is the promise of a near-biblical restoration. As painless as Sanders'.

In truth, Trump and Sanders are soaring not just by defying the establishment, but by defying logic and history. Sanders' magic potion is socialism; Trump’s is Trump.

The young Democrats swooning for Sanders appear unfamiliar with socialism’s century-long career, a dismal tale of ruination from Russia to Cuba to Venezuela. Indeed, are they even aware that China’s greatest reduction in poverty in human history correlates precisely with the degree to which it has given up socialism?

Trump’s magic is toughness — toughness in a world of losers. The power and will of the caudillo will make everything right.

Apart from the fact that strongman rule contradicts the American constitutional tradition of limited and constrained government, caudillo populism simply doesn’t work. It accounts in a large part for the relative backwardness of Africa and Latin America. In 1900, Argentina had a per capita income fully 70 percent of ours. After a 20th century wallowing in Peronism and its imitators, Argentina is a basket case, its per capita income now 23 percent of ours.

There certainly is a crisis of confidence in the country’s institutions. But that’s hardly new. The current run of endemic distrust began with Vietnam and Watergate. Yet not in our lifetimes have the left and right populism of the Sanders and Trump variety enjoyed such massive support.

The added factor is the Obama effect, the depressed and anxious mood of a nation experiencing its worst economic recovery since World War II and watching its power and influence abroad decline amid a willed global retreat.

The result is a politics of high fantasy. Things can’t get any worse, we hear, so why not shake things up to their foundation? Anyone who thinks things can’t get any worse knows nothing. And risks everything.

[From the Patriot Post]